Where did this come from: This scenario started out as two very separate threads. I'm still not entirely sure I should have mixed them. Oh well, both threads are interesting enough. If you want to ignore one or the other and concentrate exclusively on the remaining one, you'll still have an interesting enough scenario.

 Thread one started a long time ago with a question: On the one hand we have the Aztecs and other heavily populated 'civilized' groups of central Mexico. On the other hand we have the stereotypical tribal Indians of North America. I asked myself: Why didn't Aztec-style civilization simply spread north until it was too cold to grow corn—say Southern Canada? How, where and why did the transition take place? In trying to answer that question, I discovered a little known, but fascinating group of Indian tribes. 

There was quite a distance between the northern frontier of the Aztec empire and the current international border between the United States and Mexico—an area at least as large as the Aztec core. That area was filled with tribes that even I had never heard of or knew little about—tribes like the Opata, the Eudeve, and the Yaqui. Once I read up on them, I started thinking of ways to make their history more dramatic—not that it lacked drama as it was. I decided to bring Sir Francis Drake into their lives on his great voyage of 1579, which eventually took him around the world. 

At the same time, I've been refining my version of Island California (see last issue). I decided tentatively to combine the two threads. This scenario will have Sir Francis Drake discovering and basing himself on a smaller version of my Island of California—an island consisting of what in our time-line would be the southern half of the peninsula of Baja California. 

I'm making it smaller because frankly I'm very uneasy about the probability of there being an England, a Sir Francis Drake, or even our species of human being if I have all of California break off of North America and head south in the Eocene. I'm still somewhat uneasy about those things given the revised island, but I think that it is at least marginally possible that any changes propagating from that altered geology would damp out before they reached anything vital to our history. Peninsulas generally tend to be dead-ends where dying species hang on for a time, rather than hotbeds of new species. In any case, on to the scenario. 

What actually happened: (European perspective) In 1579, Sir Francis Drake sailed on a voyage that was essentially a mission of state-approved piracy. The English crown was aware of his intentions and privately supported them. He sailed around the southern end of South America, then raided Spanish coastal settlements all the way up the coasts of South and Central America. The raids caught the Spanish off-guard after fifty-odd years where the Pacific had been their private lake. 

Drake found the going easy and lucrative—almost too lucrative. He seized so much silver that his flagship began to leak from the weight. In our time-line he landed somewhere in what is now California, fixed his ship, then sailed the rest of the way around the world. 

What might have happened: (European perspective): Drake was looking for the western end of the non-existent northwest passage through North America. As he went along the coast of Baja California, he would be on the alert for signs of that passage. The strait that separated the island of Baja California from the mainland would have attracted his attention. Add in a good natural harbor at the north end of the island, or better yet, on a smaller island off the northern tip of the main island. Make that island easily defendable and uninhabited. Drake wouldn't be happy about the lack of distance between him and Spanish Mexico, but the combination of a good harbor, a possible northwest passage, and a strong defensive position would lead him to stop there. We'll look at the consequences of that latter. Right now let's look at the Indian side of what happened and what might have happened. 

What actually happened (From an Indian perspective): On the east coast and in the center of Mexico, the transition from the 'civilized' groups like the Aztecs and Tlaxcallans to desert nomads was rather abrupt. The frontier of agriculture moved north or south from time-to- time as the climate shifted, but the line between 'civilized' and nomadic Indians was generally pretty clear-cut. For the western third of Mexico, there really wasn't a clear line between 'civilized' and 'uncivilized'. The Tarascans took a subset of central Mexican culture, added their own elements, and created an empire to rival the Aztecs. West and north of the Tarascans, other groups took subsets of Tarascan culture, added in their own elements, and created cultures with large agricultural populations and varying degrees of political and material sophistication all the way north to what is now the US/Mexican border. 

As I mentioned earlier, these groups are almost unknown to most people in the US, though some played a prominent part in the history of New Spain and then Mexico. The southern part of this area was conquered by Nuno de Guzman(sp) in the early 1530's and ruled for a few years as province separate from New Spain. The conquest and rule were exceptionally brutal and destructive even by the standards of the time, and several groups were destroyed so completely that specialists in the area are just starting to piece together a picture of the groups as they were before the conquest. Even the names of many prominent groups have been lost. 

North of the area destroyed by Guzman, a number of related tribes lived, most prominent of which were the Yaquis. The Yaquis and related tribes lived and farmed along the fertile valleys of a series of rivers that ran to the sea along the coast of Northwest Mexico. In 1579 these were still large tribes, with the Yaquis numbering as many as 60,000 and a related tribe called the Mayo at least that many people.

 The Opata may have been an even larger group. They lived inland from the Yaquis, and their population has been estimated in a range from 30,000 up to 100,000. They were also primarily agricultural, and some researchers believe that when the Spanish arrived in Central Mexico the ancestors of the Opata were very close to developing their own urban, state-level culture. The Opata were also known as one of the few North American Indian tribes to use poison arrows. 

In 1579 this area was still outside the effective control of New Spain. The Spanish were still fighting a bitter, decades-long war against the Chichemic nomads of the Central Mexican deserts. The Spanish frontier was still twenty or thirty years away from the Yaquis or the Opata in 1579, though Spanish expeditions had gone through the area from time-to-time, and the local Indians knew that something deadly lurked to the south of them. 

In our time-line, the Spanish missionary frontier reached this area in the early 1600's. Spanish diseases almost certainly made it there a bit earlier. The Spanish ranching and silver mining frontier reached the area a decade or two later, and secular Spaniards fought a many-decades- long political battle with the Jesuits over control of Indian lands and bodies. The Jesuits were expelled from the area over a hundred years later. 

Without their protection, some Indians in this area, like the Opata, were absorbed into Mexican society. Others, like the Yaqui, fought for autonomy in a series of revolts that went on until they merged with the Mexican revolutions starting in 1911. 

What might have happened (Indian perspective) Ultimately, if the English found a way to maintain themselves in this area, they would give Indians an alternate focus to maneuver around. In our time-line, with Baja California a peninsula, there is simply no way the English could have established themselves in the area. Given Baja California as an island, English colonies in the area may or may not be possible. We'll see as the scenario unfolds. 

Drake lands in the easily defendable natural harbor my bit of alternate geology has given him. As he tries to repair his flagship, he sends other vessels of his fleet through the strait into the Gulf of California. His captains are initially disappointed to find Northern Mexico in the way of what they thought might be a passage through the American continent. After a little investigation, they begin to see potential. The area is rich in silver, fertile, and not controlled by Spain.

Drake's people may land in Yaqui country during an epidemic and manage to earn Yaqui trust by caring for the sick. (That may be a stretch. Mexico was in the middle of one of its periodic major epidemics, but I'm not sure it made it as far north as Yaqui country. The first epidemics known to have made it that far north came in 1611-12,1616-17, and possibly 1606-7). Drake's men cement an alliance with the Yaquis, do some trading with them, claim the country in the name of Queen Elizabeth, and then redouble their efforts to find a passage through to the Atlantic.  Their discoveries will become very valuable if they can find such a passage. It is less likely to be useful without it, due to the difficulty of getting past the Spanish-controlled coasts of Peru and New Spain to get there.

 The Spanish have not been idle. They have a fleet out looking for Drake, so far unsuccessfully. After a time, garbled word of strange Europeans up the west coast of Mexico reaches Mexico city. The Spanish viceroy scrapes together a small fleet of ships that are not already out looking for Drake, and sends them north to investigate. The Spanish encounter Drake's ships of the coast of Yaqui country. Drake's men have explored the upper Gulf of California and are returning with the news that there is no passage.

 The two fleets clash. The Spanish are defeated, but one of their ships limps back to Mexico with the news that Drake has been found. Two of Drake's ships are badly damaged in the fight. Rather than risk a voyage back to Drake's harbor, the crews land in Yaqui country and use stores from the ships to build a fort to hopefully keep the Spanish at bay until they can be rescued. 

The presence of those Englishmen starts having an impact on the military equation of New Spain. The Chichemic tribes have been fighting Spain for over a decade. They are very interested when they hear about these new Europeans who are apparently enemies of Spain. As New Spain gathers ships and men for a massive attempt to destroy Drake, his stranded men in Yaqui country are visited by little delegations from various tribes who want to evaluated the potential of this new force. Ominously for Spain, a few of those delegations are from tribes that have long been military allies of New Spain. 

And that's about all I have time for this issue. What happens next? Does Drake simply repair his ships and sail away? Does he attempt to found a colony? If he tries to found a colony, how does he re-supply it? Can it survive in the face of Spanish hostility? Can it become the nucleus around which anti-Spanish Indians can gather? As always, comments are very welcome. 

If you are enjoying this scenario, or if you are disappointed with it, please let me know. I always read and enjoy any feedback I can get.  

Note: I'm still planning to start an 'e-mail to the editor' section--hopefully next issue.  If you do e-mail me, please indicate whether or not I can use your e-mail in that section.