Fellow POD member Robert Alley issued an off- the-cuff challenge last issue that I decided to take seriously. He asked if there was a way, starting in 1935, to avoid World War II altogether. I'm going to narrow that down a little because it gets very difficult to project things out more than 10 to 15 years. The object of this exercise will be to find a plausible way to delay World War II until say 1955.

 The obvious, but probably wrong answer would be to have Hitler die of a stroke or lead poisoning prior to say 1937. I'm guessing that might delay the war until 1942 or 1944, but not stop it. Goring or whoever else took over might be somewhat more cautious, but eventually a strong Germany was not going to be constrained by a set of weak Central European states and the poorly led western allies. As long as Germany became strong, it was going to expand. That expansion would have been likely to lead to war sometime in the 1940's.

 Western resolve at some key point—say when the Germans reoccupied the Rhineland or at Munich—might have delayed things a bit too, and given the right amount of humiliation for Hitler might have even altered the course of events enough to avoid the war. Those points of divergence have been studied to death though, and I'm not sure I can add too much to the things that have already been said about them. Also, I think there's a better point of divergence that has been almost entirely overlooked.

 If one financial scandal in Spain in 1935 had been avoided or successfully covered up, World War II might well have been delayed a good many years. In 1935, Spain had a moderately reformist government. That government was in a reasonably strong position, having crushed separate revolts of conservative army officers and Anarcho-Syndicalists in the past two years. It looked at least possible that Spain's politics would get several years of moderate reform, defusing some of the growing hatred between left and right.

 Unfortunately, the center self- destructed in an imminently avoidable financial scandal. The government called new elections. In 1936, a coalition of leftist parties won a controversial majority in the Spanish parliament. As the new government took power, violence between left and right escalated, as leaders of both sides were assassinated and the government made little effort to rein in its supporters. Finally, the right tried a coup. That led to the three years of the Spanish Civil War. 

A Spanish Civil War may have been inevitable in the long run, but that doesn't necessarily matter. The timing and nature of the Spanish Civil War in our time-line did a lot to make World War II happen. Among other things, the Spanish Civil War: 

•  Allowed the Germans to test weapons and concepts for its rearmament before spending a great deal of money on them.
•  Conserved scarce German hard currency by giving Germany access to key Spanish raw materials in exchange for weapons and the services of the "Condor Legion", a group of several thousand German 'volunteers' who helped the Nationalists in the civil war. 
• Severely weakened Mussolini's Italy, making him dependent on Hitler, and thus incapable of opposing the German annexation of Austria.
• Polarized public opinion in England and France, making it more difficult for leaders of those countries to act in their national interests.

 Lets say that the Spanish Civil War either doesn't happen as such or is delayed significantly—by at least three years. Italy begins the process of re-equipping its army to eliminate the many deficiencies that were revealed in the conquest of Ethiopia. Given the Italian army's leadership, that process is not particularly efficient, or effective, but it does start to have some impact. At least the Italians have all of the equipment that they sent to Spain in our time-line, and that's a rather substantial amount of equipment. The airplanes and tanks the Italians sent to Spain in our time-line would have soon become obsolete anyway, but the trucks, artillery pieces, and small arms would have remained at least somewhat useful until the early 1940's, and would have then probably been sold to central or eastern European armies to partially pay for new equipment. Germany doesn't have the experience of the Spanish Civil War to test out concepts.

 The Germans also have to buy Spanish raw materials with increasingly scarce hard currency. That slows down German rearmament. In our time- line, by early 1938 Germany faced a financial crisis which would have forced a major cutback in rearmament. In our time-line annexing Austria postponed that crisis by six months, and the annexation of first the Sudetenland and then the rest of Czechoslovakia postponed it indefinitely.

 In this time-line, the crisis would come somewhat earlier. The Germans would have had less opportunity to build up their army, and the Italians would be strong enough that the Germans would probably not challenge them over Austria. Germany in this time-line and Germany in our time-line would rapidly diverge in power. 

In our time-line, Germany got the ME-109 and ME-110 into mass production in time to make most of the other fighter airforces of Europe obsolete by late 1938. A slower rollout would let the French, British and Czechs and probably others catch up technologically before the Germans finished reequipping.

 In our time-line, each of the early German conquests made the next one much easier. Conquering Austria outflanked the Czech defenses. Taking Czechoslovakia gave the Germans around 5,000 artillery pieces, roughly a third of the number they deployed against France. It gave them several hundred reasonably good tanks and enough other equipment to equip 30 or 40 divisions. It also exposed the southern flank of Poland. 

Stop that process early on, and Germany has a very difficult time expanding beyond its borders. They've already spent their own resources on armaments to the point of near bankruptcy. They don't have access to other people's resources. The armaments they bought in the early stages begin to get obsolete, and given the financial crisis they are in, the Germans are hard pressed to maintain their current relative power, much less expand it. What do you think? Does that stop World War II?

If you enjoyed this scenario, or if you are disappointed with it, please let me know. I always read and enjoy any feedback I can get.  

Note: I'm still planning to start an 'e-mail to the editor' section--hopefully next issue.  If you do e-mail me, please indicate whether or not I can use your e-mail in that section.