What has happened so far: In this alternate history, the southern half to two-thirds of Baja California is an island rather than part of a peninsula. In this time-line's 1579, Sir Francis Drake found a good, easily defendable harbor to repair ships damaged in his groundbreaking raid on the Spanish Pacific coast colonies. His men also discovered the coast of northwest Mexico-fertile, heavily populated, rich in silver, and not yet occupied by Spain.

From that base, Drake has led a devastating primarily Indian attack on the northern frontiers of New Spain. Several Spanish provinces have been devastated. Indian tribes that have long been allied to the Spanish have turned on them. Viceroy Almanza of New Spain has been captured by the Cazcanes, a tribe that had long been military allies of Spain.

There is now a wide band of territory held by Indian rebels between Drake and the core of Spanish Mexico. The hard core of fighting men that has long protected the frontier of Spanish Mexico has been for the most part stripped away, leaving a large but vulnerable population of Spanish settlers who have never had to prove their fighting ability.

A series of Spanish defeats has shaken the Spanish hold on the Indians of central Mexico, on the 20,000 or so black slaves in Mexico, and on the thousands of Mestizos-people of mixed Spanish and Indian blood-that the Spanish have long dominated. There have already been serious slave revolts in Mexico since the English threat appeared, and groups of both blacks and mestizos have moved to carve out areas where they dominate and 'protect' the local Indians, while keeping Spaniards out.

So, what happens next? Drake and his Indian allies have the initiative, but Drake knows that he will ultimately lose if he gives the Spanish time to gather their strength. The core of Spanish power-the area of the old Aztec empire-- is still relatively intact, and for the most part under Spanish control. That has to change, and it has to change before the Spanish settlers in that area can get into defensible positions and learn how to fight effectively. The Otomi and Tlaxcallans have long shielded the center of that area from most Chichemic attacks. The Otomi have now for the most part gone over to the English, while the Tlaxcallans stood by while Chichemic raiders and a few renegade Tlaxcallans killed or drove out the hundred or so Spanish settlers in Tlaxcallan country.

The Otomi have learned a great deal as military allies of the Spanish. They now put that knowledge to use with Drake's help. Bands of hundreds of well-armed, mounted Otomi, supported by a few dozen of Drake's men, push south, by-passing large, defensible towns, but devastating ranches, mines, and estates, along with smaller or more vulnerable towns and pro-Spanish Indian villages. Thousands of terrified Spanish and Indians head south or to the nearest large town, while hundreds are killed and thousands are carried away. Raids come as close as 20 miles from Mexico City.

In the confusion, slave revolts and escapes large and small are common. They range from individual slaves stealing some food and a horse and riding off to attempts to take over whole towns and kill or enslave all of their Spanish inhabitants. In Mexico City itself, around four hundred of the city's eight thousand black slaves manage to seize a portion of the city for several days, killing nearly two hundred Spaniards in the initial uprising, many of them wealthy and prominent citizens. Most of the rebels are eventually captured or killed, but over a hundred of them manage to escape into the surrounding country-side. Several hundred more black slaves manage to escape during the fighting, along with a number of Chichemic slaves. Over five hundred slaves are killed in the fighting or executed afterwards-many of whom played no part in the uprising. Large parts of the wealthiest areas of Mexico City are damaged in the fighting.

A few Indians and Mestizos are involved in the revolt, and Spanish authorities round up and execute several hundred of each, most of whom had nothing to do with the revolt. That turns out to be counterproductive. Over five hundred Indians and mestizos slip away over the next few weeks to join Drake's forces.

The raids and revolts turn much of central Mexico into a shambles. The raiders carry away huge numbers of horses and cattle, along with Mexican Indian captives and anything else the raiders find of interest. They also carry back smallpox.

The epidemic of typhus has been joined by smallpox, possibly brought in as Spaniards from other colonies pour in to join the fighting. By now, after 60 years of exposure, the Indians of Central Mexico are little more susceptible than Europeans. The Indians around Drake's colony-the Yaquis and their relatives and the Opata--are very vulnerable though, and the epidemic kills thousands of them. Drake's men manage to save thousands more that would have died, simply by feeding victims and giving them water at times when almost the entire population is sick.

The core parts of the Indian forces attacking Spanish Mexico are not damaged particularly badly. The Otomi, Cazcanes, and Chichemics have all had several previous encounters with smallpox, and are for the most part immune to it. From Drake's point of view, the main problem arising from the smallpox is that with the smaller populations near his bases, it is more difficult to trade for food. He works to alleviate that problem by helping the Yaquis and other hard-hit tribes develop mechanisms to integrate captive Indians from Central Mexico into their villages. That has some disadvantages. Many of the captives are devout Catholics. Most of them don't speak the same languages as the locals. On the other hand, many of the captives bring new skills to the area. Given time, it is possible that new blended cultures may develop in northwest Mexico, mixing parts of old Aztec, Spanish, and northwest Mexican Indian cultures.

The Otomi, Cazcane, and Chichimec raids have devastated a large part of Mexico. They are by no means a knockout blow though. Spanish settlers are pulling back to defensible positions, and starting to relearn the fighting skills that let their grandfathers take over Mexico, and let their fathers control it. Spanish reinforcements from other colonies are pouring in. Drake has to make his gains permanent soon, or the Spanish will recover and roll them back, then overwhelm the few hundred English at Drake's Land and Fort Elizabeth.

Drake has a strategy in mind to end Spanish power over much of central Mexico. Spanish settlers have been a class of rulers and artisans, living off the labor of a much larger number of Indians-most of them indifferent to or hostile to Spanish. Blacks and mestizos have had a marginal role in colonial society, looked down upon, to some extent feared, but with no opportunity to rise beyond a certain point.

Drake has talked with captives and defectors. He understands Spanish society better than the Spanish do. He understands that the Spanish towns are dependent on the Indian towns and villages of the country-side. If the Indians of those towns and villages can be convinced or coerced to withdraw their labor, then the structure of Spanish society will collapse. The raids have done part of that work, by pushing Spaniards back to the larger towns. Now Drake gives Indian towns two options. They can acknowledge the theoretical rule of England, exercised through the Otomis and Cazcanes in some places and by armies of mestizos, Indians, or blacks that have joined the English cause in others, or they can continue under Spanish rule and be subject to the kind of devastating raids that they have seen in the last few weeks and months.

In other words, Drake is setting up a series of small Indian, black, or mestizo client states in the core of Spanish Mexico. Those states will contend with the Spanish for control over the 'civilized' Indians of Mexico, and hopefully keep the Spanish busy enough that Drake and company can settle Drake's Land relatively unmolested. Those states also give Drake access to friendly ports on the gulf coast of Mexico, which makes his logistics burden much more manageable, though English ships still have to sail past the Spanish-held islands of the Caribbean to reach Mexico.

And that's about as far as I'm going to take this one. What do you think happens next? Does Drake's Land survive? Does it manage to keep a screen of Indian, black and mestizo states between itself and whatever remains of Spanish Mexico? Do colonists from Drake's Land explore to the north and found settlements in California, and maybe even along the Pacific coast to meet the Russians somewhere along the coast of Alaska, or maybe even on the Asian side of the Bering Strait? What happens to the rest of Spanish South and Central America? Does the example of black and mestizos states spread? Does the apparent weakness of Spain inspire other English sea captains and other European states to try to repeat Drake's success? If so, do they repeat Drake's success on the southern fringes of Peru, or in Panama, or in Colombia? Do the Spanish of Mexico try to regain lost estates, or do they drift away to other colonies when the easy life in Mexico appears unattainable? What is the impact on North America? Chichemics and other northern tribes have stolen thousands of Spanish horses and cattle. Both animals will be headed north by trade or theft fifty to a hundred years before they did in our time-line. Will those animals spread fast enough to reach the eastern United States and change the Indians that eventually meet English, French, and Dutch when they try to settle North America? How will the composite societies formed from Yaquis and Opatas on the one hand, and captive Central Mexican Indians on the other develop? How will the black and mestizo dominated states develop, assuming they survive?