World War II Alternate History

BY: Dale Cozort

World War II Alternate History For December 1997:

What if Japan had launched a preemptive attack on the Soviet Union in the 1932-34 Time frame? (Okay, it isn't quite World War II, but it's close enough.)


Table Of Contents


What Actually Happened?

What Might Have Happened?

How Realistic Is All This?

Short Term Consequences

Consequences Thru 1942

Long Term Consequences (World War II Ends With A Nuclear Exchange?)

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What actually happened: In the late 1920s and early 1930s the Soviet Union rapidly built up its industrial and military power. Japanese leaders were very aware of the trend. They figured that by around 1936 the Soviets would build up an overwhelming force that would endanger the Japanese position in Manchuria and Korea. Influential Japanese leaders publicly advocated a preemptive strike to push the Soviets out of the far east before they became too strong. The Soviets took that possibility very seriously and built up their forces in the area much more rapidly than the Japanese thought they could. There were serious rumblings in diplomatic circles of a Japanese attack on Vladivostok in the spring of 1934. Then the Germans began openly rearming, and the Japanese decided that the bulk of Soviet attention would be focused on Europe rather than Asia and the threat of war receded for a while.

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What might have happened: If the Japanese had decided to go after the Soviets in say spring 1934, it would have been a very strange war. I need to do a lot more research, but based on what I know now, my guess is that it would go something like this:

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How realistic is all of this? The specifics may be wrong, but I suspect that the general outline is pretty close to what would have happened. The 1934 Soviet army was strong in equipment but the structure and leadership lended itself to pushing offensives too far. The Japanese would have started out behind in equipment, but the Japanese soldiers of this era were very tough, well-trained people. Offensives on both sides would have followed the rail lines much more than they did in World War II. Neither side was very motorized and neither had the resources to get motorized during the war without outside help. The Soviets would not have had the industrial power that they had in World War II. They also wouldn't have had American Lend Lease to fill in the gaps in their production. That means no 500,000 trucks to motorize their army, and no American food to help keep the army fed. Both sides would have bought arms and equipment from abroad to some extent, but neither side was rich in foreign exchange, so that would have dwindled as the war went on. Neither side was really capable of knocking out the other, so I suspect that they would have fought to exhaustion.

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Possible short-term worldwide impacts of the war:

--->Japan:
1) Stronger military industrialization. They would be capable of building more tanks and aircraft in 1937 than they could in our time line.
2) Stronger army, especially in the tank realm than in our time line.
3) Weaker navy. With the bulk of the fighting on land, the navy would not get the emphasis that it did in our time line.
4) Weaker economy. Japan would be capable of building more military hardware, but less able to afford to do so. The burden of maintaining an army to defend the conquered territories would make this much worse. Modernization would slow down. Building up too early can be bad, as the Italians proved in World War II.
5) Little offensive power for the next five years or so. They would be quite busy defending what they had. They could handle Chinese warlords, and they might even do some small-scale expansion in northern China, but that would be the extent of what they could do.

The Soviets---> Soviet internal politics might turn nastier a little sooner than it did in our time line. Someone would need to get the blame for defeats. Stalin was nowhere near as strong in 1934 as he became later in our time line. He might get pushed out, or he might launch a preemptive purge. Expect Soviet politics to get very treacherous in 1935. I'm guessing that Stalin might get pushed to the sidelines or have his power reduced temporarily, then come back after the war and try to purge his enemies. I doubt that he would ever get the kind of absolute power that he had in our time line.

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Consequences Through 1942: This gets extremely iffy. My guess is that the second World War would be somewhat recognizable, but very strange if it happened at all. Germany would not be able to turn it's buildup into an invasion of the Soviet Union without Japanese help, at least not in 1937. Hitler would probably build up a little while longer, then realize that he needed to back off or turn the buildup into gains for Germany or the German economy was going to tube. I'd say he cuts a deal with the Soviets where both sides cut their forces in or near the Baltics. That frees Hitler up to deal with the states of Central Europe. He would want to take about the same path he did in our time line--remilitarize the border with France, take Austria, then go after the Czechs. He would be starting a year later though. The French might or might not allow the unopposed remilitarization. A different political situation in France, which there almost certainly would be, might force the French to fight. A French/German war in 1938? It wouldn't have been a German cakewalk. The French had plenty of equipment that could handle Panzer Is and IIs and fighter biplanes. Hitler might not have tried the remilitarization in 1938. He had a pretty firm grasp of French politics. If the Germans weren't able to remilitarize their border with France in 1938, war would have probably been delayed for a few years. Britain and France wouldn't have gone to war preemptively. The Germans would need a few years to re-equip. It would take longer than in our time line because Germany would be weaker financially. Say war in 1942 to remilitarize the Rhineland. I have no way of predicting how that would go. By this time, things would have diverged so far that the armies would be nearly unrecognizable equipment-wise. What would a French tank from 1942 look like. How would it be deployed? Who knows?

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Long term consequences:

If something equivalent to World War II happened in this time line, and it didn't start until 1942, there is a very real chance that it would end up going nuclear five or six years later. What kind of world would emerge? If you have any thoughts on the scenario, e-mail me.

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