Alternate History Scenario For November 1998:
Llamas In The Appalachians

What actually happened: During the last ice age, North America looked more like a cold version of Africa than like present day North America. It had cold-adapted elephants, lions, camels, horses, and many more exotic animals. About 70 percent of the North American animal over 120 pounds died out at the end of the ice age, either shortly before or shortly after the first big-game hunting human cultures appeared. Those extinctions held back North American Indian cultural development. The surviving large animals gave few options for domestication, and the North American Indians never domesticated any of them.

Why did the extinctions happen: That's very controversial. It is also probably not provable one way or another. Unraveling cause and effect in an ecology is very difficult even when you can watch the changes happen. It may be impossible 10,000 years after those changes happened. The North American environment changed at about the same time that the large animals died off, but was that the cause of the extinction or the result of it? It would be very surprising if the environment didn't change at least a little when 70 percent of the big animals died off. In Africa, savannahs change into forests when you kill off the elephants. There are all kinds of other interdependencies like that. My theory is that Indians found the large animals in a vulnerable but not hopeless position because of the climate changes at the end of the last ice age. They hunted a few large vulnerable species to extinction. They also indirectly killed off a few species by taking over or destroying some resource those species needed. In some areas like the Great Plains, that resource might be sheltered, tree-lined river valleys where the animals went to escape the worst of the Plains winters. Humans would compete for that shelter and burn the trees for firewood. In other areas where water is scarce, humans would compete for that.

The bottom line is that humans killed off some large, vulnerable species. That set off a cascade of changes to the ecology that took down additional species. The scarce survivors had to adapt to that rapidly changing environment while under severe pressure from various forms of human interference. Most of them didn't make it.

What might have happened: Llamas survive in some rugged areas of the Appalachian Mountains. Why llamas? The really big spectacular animals like Mammoths, Mastodons, Glyptodonts, and Ground Sloths simply weren't going to make it, at least not in their current form. They needed too much territory and their generations were too long for them to adapt quickly enough to human activity. Smaller animals like horses and North American camels had a chance. I thought about having a North American horse survive, and that has some potential, but North American horses were primarily animals of the west, and for this scenario I need an animal that was available in the mountains of the eastern US. I settled on a North American species of llama because it was apparently available in the right area (fossils have been found in Florida and either Kentucky or Tennessee, and because some species of llamas were able to survive in South America. That probably means that llamas were on the borderline between making it and not making it. Peccaries (sort of a New World pig) were in that same category but probably less useful. Some little factor tipped the scale one way in South America and the other way in North America. I decided to throw in a little factor to tip things to the survival side in North America: the llamas in the Appalachian Mountains carry a parasite-borne disease that we'll call Appalachian fever or llama fever. It is similar to, but more deadly and easier to spread than Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever. The first humans hit the area and start dying rather spectacularly. The survivors decide to move on. At this point there is plenty of room in North America.

Since this hypothetical disease would have gone extinct with its hosts in our time-line, I can to some extent tailor the characteristics of Appalachian fever to fit into the needs of the scenario. It needs to be deadly enough to keep humans out, yet not deadly enough to have too big an impact on future development. Let's say it is tick-borne and dependent on llamas for part of its life cycle. It can't spread unless llamas do. It is very dangerous for people that get it, but it doesn't spread very fast, which means that entire communities don't usually get sick with it at the same time. People exposed to it are immune for several years, but the fever can hit them again if they go enough years without being exposed. The fever does hit people with some genetic make-ups harder than others, so populations gradually get less susceptible over generations. People with "B" blood-types are less likely to get seriously ill or die from it than people with other blood-types. "B" blood-types are rare among Indians other than Apaches, Navahos and related people, so that doesn't initially matter, though it will later. Tribes that encounter Appalachian fever for the first time, and can't get away from it, typically experience a 20 to 30 percent population decline over a period of several years, then gradually recover.

For a couple thousand years the Appalachian Mountains remain a pocket of the old North America, with a wide range of surviving species. That doesn't last though. Appalachian fever isn't deadly enough to keep humans out forever. Human pressure gradually builds up outside the affected area. A few brave or desperate humans hunt at the edge of the pocket. Big species require big territories, so the really big animals gradually die off. The big predators go first, then Ground Sloths and Glyptodonts. Mastodons survive for a while, getting smaller as time goes on.

As human population pressure grows, humans encroach on the pocket, dying in large numbers, but also adapting to the disease. This is a gradual process, and animals inside the pocket are able to adapt to some extent to the presence of humans. Mastodons were close relatives of elephants--very smart and adaptable. A remnant of pygmy Mastodons might survive up in the mountains, or they might not. The rest of the scenario won't count on that. A North American species of peccaries might also survive, as might a bear species or two that went extinct in our time-line. The scenario won't count on that either. All we really need is that the llama survive, and that it be species that can be domesticated.

The ripples spread: This change has a major impact over a gradually increasing area, and comparatively minor consequences over a wider area. Those 'minor' changes aren't particularly minor to the people and animals involved. By 2000 BC, very few if any of the Indians or animals of this time-line are genetically identical to any Indian or animal of our time-line. The consequences are minor in that the Indians and animals of this time-line for the most part play the same roles in the same ways that they did in our time-line.

Hunting llamas in Appalachia--To 2000 BC: Indians gradually populate Appalachia, being pushed into the area by population pressure and sometime military pressure from surrounding tribes. They gradually adapt, and populations grow. Indians in the areas where llamas survived have a higher incidence of disease, and a couple more types of animals to hunt. At this point it doesn't make much difference.

Llamas are domesticated--2000BC to 200BC: In both time-lines, Indians begin to settle down and use resources more intensively. The beginning of farming have appeared along the Ohio and Mississippi rivers. Where llamas survived, Indians start the process of domestication. They begin controlling the characteristics of their prey by being more selective in the llamas that they kill. Ones with desirable characteristics are allowed to live and reproduce, others become lunch. As Indians come to understand the needs of their prey, they make sure that those needs are met. Indians figure out how to create good llama habitat by controlled burning and clearing. Injured or orphan llamas are nursed back to health so that they grow up and be eaten later. At some point the line between hunting and herding is crossed, and Indians in the Appalachians become herders.

Things really start to diverge in Eastern North America--200BC to 500 AD: In the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys, the Adena and Hopewell Mound Builders are building an impressive culture based on cultivating native plants like sunflowers, squash, and several native water weeds that are no longer cultivated in our time-line. The Hopewell people especially were great traders, getting exotic goods from as far away as Wyoming. In this time-line, their trade network extends into the Appalachians. The tribes of the Appalachians have developed their own extensive trade network, using llamas as pack animals. That network puts tribes along the east coast in closer contact with inland tribes, and the primitive agriculture of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers spreads to some of the rivers of the east coast. The east coast tribes gradually domesticate new plant species of their own, and those new plants spread back to the center. Population grows a little faster than it did in our time-line, and is a little less centered on the central rivers. There are some die-offs from the Appalachian fever, but Appalachian tribes quickly move in to the vacated land.

Llamas don't spread very quickly during this time period. They are mountain animals, not well suited to lowland life. They also cause disease, which translates to a general impression among non-Appalachian tribes that they cause bad luck. At the same time, they are very useful, and the tribes that have adapted to them gradually spread at the expense of their neighbors. Some of the Appalachian tribes become great traders, using llama caravans to reach interior areas that canoe-based trade can't reach. By 500 AD, most of the tribes of the interior of North America either use llamas or are part of trade networks that do. Overall, the population and culture of eastern North America is a little higher in this time-line than it was in ours.

Things diverge on the Great Plains--500-1200AD: Domestic llamas cross the northern part of the Mississippi river around 500 AD. From now on we'll have to look at the impact there as well as in the east. By the end of this period, we'll need to start looking at the impact the changes are having on the Pueblo Indians on the other side of the plains.

Some plains tribes eagerly adopt llamas, suffer a die-off, then start growing at the expense of their neighbors. Ancestors of the Apaches and Navahos start their southward trek a little earlier than they did in our time-line, attracted by the new way of life developing on the plains. They are less affected by the fever than their neighbors, and they adopt llama herding enthusiastically. At first their spread tends to cut off trade across the plains, and the Hopewell and Adena Mound Builders suffer as their trade networks are disrupted. Hopewell and Adena are in decline anyway as warfare spreads along with a new weapon, the bow-and-arrow. Later in the period, the llama herds make trade across the plains easier.

On the eastern side of the Mississippi, the time between 400 and 700 AD is somewhat of a dark age, though a new culture is already starting to rise: the Mississippian Mound Builders. The Mississippians depend much more on farming than earlier mound-building cultures did. Corn has spread north from Mexico, and is gradually becoming a major part of Indian diet. The llama-borne caravans of the interior spread corn agriculture more quickly than it spread in our time-line. At the same time, Mississipian culture itself spreads more slowly. Mississippians are low-land people, very oriented toward floodplain agriculture. They are slow to adopt llamas and vulnerable to the fever. As a result, a wider variety of cultures spread in various parts of eastern North America. Areas away from the rivers have larger and more sophisticated populations than they did in our time-line, as do areas on the east side of the Appalachians.

On the northern part of the east coast of North America, Vikings from Iceland and Greenland make some appearances starting around 900 AD. They try a few settlements, all of which fail within a few years. They do trade to some extent with the local tribes. The local Indians are somewhat more sophisticated than in the ones in our time-line, so the trade is a little more extensive and longer-lasting than in our time-line. The Vikings aren't militarily strong enough to settle though, and the trade gradually dwindles as the Little Ice Age isolates and impoverishes the Greenland Vikings. The Viking visits do invigorate Indian culture to some extent. Indian boat-building and navigation techniques along the east coast become more sophisticated. Viking metal objects like axes and knives become rare and sought-after prestige goods. Indians along the New England coast are sophisticated enough in this time-line to appreciate the value of Norse sagas, and some tribes adopt similar systems. Viking writing has some influence on the Indians, with Norse symbols being used for Indian purposes. Indian pictographs become more sophisticated due to Norse contact, and are able to convey more information. They aren't true writing by the end of this stage, but they are inching in that direction.

Meanwhile, back on the plains, the proto-Apaches keep pushing south. At the same time, llamas spread ahead of them, and are adopted eagerly by proto-Jumanos (an offshoot of the Pueblos who took up a plains dwelling, buffalo-hunting and trading lifestyle). Apaches and Jumanos both fight and trade with one another at various times. Neither group is monolithic. As time goes on, Apache groups ally with and even intermarry with Jumano groups, while fighting with other Jumano groups. The gap between their cultures gradually shrinks as contact continues.

Toward the end of this period, the proto-Apaches and proto-Navahos push into the Pueblo areas of the Southwest. This push results in a mixture of trade and warfare between the two peoples. The Pueblos gradually adopt llama herding on a small scale, while the newcomers adopt some aspects of Pueblo culture, and infiltrate through Pueblo country. Proto-Apache genes spread far beyond their culture area because those genes make people less likely to die from llama-borne disease.

Llamas spread to northern Mexico--1200-1520AD:As llamas become more common in Pueblo country they also begin spreading south into Northern Mexico. They have a major impact there, giving advanced cultures which are trying to establish themselves in that hostile country a boost, and turning primitive hunter-gatherers in the deserts into herders. The Yaquis and their relatives become major herders, as do the ancestors of the Opatas. Shortly before 1500 AD, llama herding begins to establish itself on the periphery of the high-culture areas of Mexico. When most people think of Mexican Indians, they think of the Aztecs, but the Aztecs were only one of many groups in the high-culture area of Mexico. They were probably the most powerful, but the Tarascan empire of northwest Mexico was very close to their equal-had actually beaten the Aztecs severely in at least one of their wars. The Tarascans were great bowmen and metallurgists. They were starting to use bronze shortly before the conquest. Various groups known as the Haustecs and Otomis were part of the Mexican high culture area, but at least partly outside the Aztec empire.

By the time Cortes (or whoever leads the first Spanish expedition) arrives in 1519, the Aztecs have a few llamas alongside the Bison and the large cats in their zoos. Northwest of the Aztecs, the powerful Tarascans are starting to use llamas for trade caravans, as are tribes on the Chichimec frontier between the civilized areas and the deserts to the north. Groups like the Otomi and the Cazcanes who are on the fringe of Mexican civilization find them very useful. So do the Haustecs of northeastern Mexico.

As llamas spread south, they make it easier for cultural and political traits from the Aztec area of Mexico to spread north. Technology spreads north too. New crops arrive in the Southwestern and Southeastern US from Mexico. Mexican Indian trade networks and Plains Indian trade networks grow to the point where they intersect in Northern Mexico. Mexican Indian styles are sought out and imitated by the elite of the Mississippian Mound Builders. Once Mexican Indians on the northeast fringe of the Aztec area become aware of the Mississippians, they begin to bypass the Plains by traveling by sea along the Gulf Coast. The Haustecs even set up small trading posts at the mouths of some of the major rivers into the Gulf Coast, like the Mississippi. This is all done by Mexican groups who are still independent of the Aztecs. The Aztecs themselves are not involved. In this time-line as well as ours, the Aztecs conquer only part of the northeastern coast, and they do that only shortly before the Spanish conquest. The Aztecs are only vaguely aware of the lands to the north.

The trade with Mexico enriches the Mississippian Mound Builders. They gain access to Mexican gold and copper ornaments, cotton, and obsidian. The Haustecs are good metalworkers. They work in mainly in copper, but they also make some use of bronze. Metal-working in cast copper spreads along the Mississippi river, starting shortly before 1500 AD. Bronze-working takes a little longer. Domestic Turkeys spread from Mexico or the Pueblo area a little earlier. Some Mississippian groups start growing cotton by around 1450 AD.

The Mexican Indians have many new varieties of corn which spread north. The weak Mexican Indian beer becomes common and popular in most of the southeastern United States. It has started to spread to the northeast coast by a little after 1500 AD.

The Central Aztec area of Mexico isn't much different than it was in our time-line. Most or all of the individuals are genetically different from their equivalents in our time-line, and some of the names are different. The same roles are filled in essentially the same kind of society. The changes have had minimal impact on the Spanish so far. Cortes leads his little band into Mexico on schedule. They conquer the Aztec on schedule. Smallpox spreads to the Mexican Indians on schedule. Then things start changing for the Spaniards.

The changes seem minor at first. Smallpox spreads quickly along trade routes. It goes south at least as far as the Inca area of South America. It speads along the llama-born trade routes as far north as New England. Some people think that the first smallpox epidemic spread that far north in our time-line too. I doubt it. I think that in our time-line it probably stopped somewhere in Northern Mexico or Texas, in areas where the populations were too small to let in continue its spread.

As the Spanish try to spread their conquest, things start diverging further. In our time-line a large, well-equipped group of Spaniards from Jamaica tried to grab the Haustecs area of northeast Mexico away from Cortes. Their expedition ended up disintegrating, and most of the men either deserted to Cortes or were killed by the Haustecs. Cortes then crushed the Haustecs after some very hard fighting. They were among the tougher Indians to beat because they used a phalanx-like formation with bowmen in the center. That helped neutralize Spanish horses.

In this time-line, the Haustecs are even more formidable. They are better bowmen, and they are not particularly afraid of horses-seeing them as simply bigger and more useful llamas--to be coveted as well as feared. As llama-herders they understand the limitations of horses more quickly than they did in our time-line, and take advantage of those limitations in choosing where to give battle. Captured horses are used as large llamas-incorporated into convoys, but initially not ridden. Cortes conquers most of the Haustec groups after some initial defeats and some very hard fighting, but many Haustecs flee into the rugged hills and deserts and continue a guerrilla war against Spanish rule. Llama fever complicates the Spanish efforts at completing the conquest.

Spanish rule in the Haustec rule is harsh. In our time-line and in this one, the Spanish king decided limit the power of Cortes by setting up one of his favorites-a lawyer named Guzman--as the ruler of the Haustec area. In both time-lines, Guzman supplements his income by selling local Indians as slaves to Cuba and other Spanish West Indies islands. In our time-line the Indians were thoroughly enough crushed that he could get away with that, but in this time-line they aren't. They also have somewhere to run to.

Haustec refugees flee along the Gulf Coast to the southeastern United States, where they turn trading posts into enclaves of Mexican Indian culture and spread the rest of Haustec metalworking to the Mississippians. More flee into the hills and deserts of northern Mexico, taking captured Spanish horses with them. Some even join their trading partners on southern fringe of the Great Plains. The ones that can't or don't want to escape launch a series of desperate revolts. Malaria spreads to the area, further reducing the population. Eventually the population is reduced to the point where it can no longer support the number of Spaniards who have settled there. Guzman responds by launching a series of slave raids into north-central Mexico and along the Gulf Coast. Those raids push refugees further north and east.

With his province disintegrating, and with the Spanish court getting ready to recall him, Guzman decides to try to conquer "La Florida"-the southeastern United States. Many of his men die of llama fever in the attempt. Most of the rest die from Indian attacks or starvation. Haustec bearers are scattered along the route, dead or fugitives. The few remaining Haustecs in his province promptly revolt with help from their refugee kinsmen along with wild tribesmen from the hills and deserts of Northern Mexico. Most of the remaining Spaniards are killed or driven out. The remnants of the Guzman expedition return to an empty province. They go on to Mexico proper, where they are promptly arrested. This has all happened by around 1526. The Spanish try to reconquer the area, but find that it isn't worth retaking. Almost the entire population has fled or been killed, and there never was much mineral wealth in the area.

Meanwhile, in northwestern Mexico, in both time-lines the Tarascans are playing a careful game. Officially, they submit to Spanish rule. Unofficially, they go their own way to the maximum extent possible. Spaniards get their gold and their tribute, but they tend to die in accidents or attacks by "hostile tribesmen" if they try too hard to exercise real power. Spaniards also tend to die of Llama fever in this time-line. In both time-lines Cortes leaves Mexico for a stupid cross-country expedition to Honduras, and is thought to be dead for quite some time. Spanish Mexico is in chaos in both time-lines, with Cortes allies and enemies both running the country for short periods of time and sometimes almost coming to the point of civil war. In that environment, no one is secure enough in office to push for real control of the Tarascans.

The Tarascans know that the Spanish will eventually try to exercise real control. They are quietly preparing for that time. As llama-herders, they are aware of the potential of horses. In a few cases, Spanish horse quietly disappear as their owners die. In others, horses are acquired through a series of trades, ultimately from Haustec refugees. A few Tarascan have learned how to ride by 1526, as have quite a few of the Haustec refugees. The Tarascans have sought out those refugees for their experience in fighting Spaniards.

A showdown is coming sooner or later. The Spanish are becoming increasingly alarmed by rumors of Tarascan military preparations, especially after the latest Haustec revolt. There are even rumors of revolt among the Indians of what used to be the Aztec empire-though the survivors of the Aztec ruling class are so few and weak that they themselves are not a threat. The political chaos among the Spaniards of Mexico, plus the example of the Haustec revolt are combining to make a general revolt in Spanish Mexico a real possibility.

If that isn't enough to keep me busy, I could start playing around with the impact of these changes in Europe. That would start at least by the mid-1520's and gradually get more pronounced. Some of the richest silver mines of Mexico were up in the areas where the wild hunting-and-gathering Chichimec tribes lived. Those tribes gave the Spanish a good fight for almost fifty years in our time-line. If you give them more military power a lot of silver might not make it back to Spain, which would make a big difference in the European balance of power. New World gold and silver both made Spain a great power and ultimately destroyed it. Change the timing a bit and you could have Spain overrun by the Turks, or Spain becoming a second Rome, ruling over a decadent empire that controls all of the important parts of Europe.

Sounds like fun, but what about... As usual, I have gone back and tried to find loopholes in all of this, and then try to patch them. Here are a few loopholes and my patches: