World War II Alternate History
BY: Dale Cozort
World War II Alternate History For October 1997:
What if Japan/Russian Border Clashes in 1939 Had Gone Differently?
What actually happened: From 1937 through mid-September 1939, the Russians and the
Japanese army in Manchuria had a series of gradually escalating border clashes. The last one,
ending in mid-September 1939, was essentially a mid-sized war. It involved over one hundred
thousand men, several hundred tanks, heavy artillery, and aircraft. It produced tens of thousands
of casualties, especially on the Japanese side. The Russians won decisively, surrounding and
nearly annihilating Japanese forces as large as a division. The Japanese decided to make peace
and leave the Soviets alone, which they did through most of World War II.
What might have happened: If the Soviet victory had been less decisive, the Japanese might
have tried for a rematch. The Soviets had more and better material, more manpower, and better
leadership in the battle, but they also got lucky. Bad weather grounded Japanese recon aircraft at
a crucial time, which helped the Soviets pull off a devastating initial surprise. The Soviets also
got help from a well-placed spy in Tokyo. Take away the surprise, and the help they got from
their man in Tokyo. The Soviets give the Japanese a bloody nose, but not enough to keep them
from coming back for more. Japan rushes in reinforcements. It looks like the war is going to
spread to other parts of the border.
The Soviets have to rush men and material east. The Germans have already attacked Poland, and
taken most of their half of it. The Russians didn't expect the German advance to be that fast.
They were frantically trying to get prepared to take the Russian part of Poland before the Germans
decide to take that too. Every day was crucial to the Soviets, because if the Germans did too
much of the fighting, and took too much territory, they might not give it back. (No honor among
thieves).
The Consequences: That depends on how much the war with Japan escalates, and how much that
delays the Soviet move into Poland.
Two possibilities: One, the war flairs up, then cooler heads prevail in Moscow and Tokyo. The
Russian invasion of Eastern Poland is delayed by a week or two by the buildup in the east, and
reluctance to take on another war while general war with Japan looks probable. The Germans
take more of Poland, and would probably be more reluctant to hand it back, especially until
Soviet/Japanese hostilities get settled. More of the Polish Army escapes through Romania. (In the
real world the Soviets captured around 300,000 Polish soldiers. Some of them would have
escaped and probably been re-equipped to fight in France.) Japan wouldn't be as reluctant to
attack the Russians in 1941, when it looked like the Russians were going down under German
attack. That could make late 1941 really nasty for the Russians.
Two: The Russians and Japanese blunder into a full-scale war in September 1939. The Japanese
put pressure on Germany to help them out. Hitler already holds Polish territory that he had
promised the Russians. He doesn't really want to give it back. If the Russians look weak against
Japan he might just decide to grab off all of Poland, and maybe Lithuania too, then dare the
Soviets to do anything about it. He might even do that, then head east in Spring 1940 instead of
west. That wouldn't be much stupider than heading east in 1941 was. The French weren't about
to venture out from behind the Maginot line and do anything offensive anyway. So we have the
Japanese and Germans at war with the Russians in 1940, with France and England technically at
war with Germany. In 1940 I doubt that the French and English would have allied with the
Russians. They would have probably decided informally to sit it out, which is what they actually
did when Germany attacked Poland. What happens next? What are the long term implications?
If you think you know, e-mail me.
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