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December 2010 Main Page Mexican-American War Mark II
A big bunch of AH Challenges this time. Soviet-Japanese War in 1939
Comments Section Point Of Divergence is an amateur press magazine and also a forum for discussing AH and AH-related ideas. Here is my comment section. |
Based
on a POD of the US forces chasing Pancho Villa getting involved in a
shooting war with Mexican government forces (or more properly the
forces of the Carranza faction that was then winning the Mexican Civil
War): My guess is that ironically the US intervention strengthen Pancho
Villa and his bunch, unless the US army catches him. That would not be
easy.
So let's say that the US army fights a couple of major battles with the Carranza faction. Historically there was one fairly serious clash in June 1916 that left a number of troops of the Carranzaista faction dead. Historically, Wilson was afraid fighting would escalate, and mobilized 75,000 National Guard troops along the border. The situation was certainly capable of escalating out of control. There were plenty of hotheads and poorly trained soldiers on the ground on both sides. So the US expeditionary force finds itself fighting Carranzaista forces, and probably random local nationalistic Mexicans outraged by what they perceive as an invasion . I'm guessing that means that Pershing and company have to fight their way out of Mexico, while diplomats are trying to patch together a cease-fire, and US battleships are poised off the Mexican coast. Rising casualties on both sides, and the political damage to the Wilson administration from having US troops seen as being chased by Mexicans make the war hard to stop once it gets going. The US has the potential to apply overwhelming force, but doesn't want to because of the threatening situation in Europe, and would have difficulty supporting a major force in Northern Mexico given the climate and poor infrastructure. At the same time, Wilson doesn't want the image that his administration let US troops get chased out of Mexico, especially not in an election year. So, the US sends more troops in to rescue Pershing and company and the Carranzaistas react to what they perceive (correctly to some extent) as a US invasion. Several pitched battles result, with the Mexicans probably getting the worst of it because of US firepower, but with significant US casualties. The Mexicans have been fighting their civil war for years and have a lot more combat experience than the US troops do. I'm guessing that the fighting eventually dies down. The US may want to grab off more hunks of Mexico, but they don't want the Mexicans who would come with that territory. So the border probably doesn't change. The aftermath could get interesting though. The fighting would materially weaken the Carranzaistas, but also legitimize them to some extent as a government that stood up to the US. On the other hand, Villa had established his anti-US credentials, and every Carranzaista army soldier killed fighting the US is one not available to fight Villa. I'm guessing Villa makes a comeback in terms of his power, which had been waning. The Mexican Civil War gets a new lease on life. The Wilson administration has a major political problem. In the election of 1916, their slogan was "He kept us out of war." Doesn't work so well when the US has just fought a fair-sized war, especially a murky affair that didn't lead to any gain for the US. The 1916 election was about as close as an election could get anyway, with a 3000 vote margin in California deciding it in terms of electoral votes. I'm guessing the Republicans win and we have President Charles Evans Hughes taking office. What does that do to the US entry to World War I? Does the US enter the war? If so, does it pursue peace in the same way? Probably not. Wilson's approach was idealistic but quite impractical. Does Austria-Hungary hold together? Wilson’s ideas had a great deal of influence on its disintegration. I’m not sure the European Great Powers would have wanted it gone, necessarily even if the Allies won. Posted on Jan 3, 2012. More Stuff For POD Members Only |
