What if the Allies had not invaded Sicily? The US saw the Mediterranean as a distraction from the real path to victory, which they figured was a thrust through northern France into Germany. The British wanted to avoid that thrust as long as possible while weakening Germany. The US was reluctantly dragged along into the North African invasion, followed by the invasion of Sicily, followed by the invasion of Italy, and the invasion of southern France, none of which they viewed as important. They figured “knock out Germany and the rest takes care of itself.” So what if the allies do the invasion of North Africa and then just focus on getting set for as early a D-Day as possible? I doubt that they could really pull off D-Day in 1943, but let’s say they focus on that as soon as the Germans and Italians are contained in North Africa.

Possible consequences: Could Mussolini still be in power after Germany folds? That would be interesting. Mussolini as the last Axis dictator standing? Hard to pull off because Italy was so weak in raw materials, but kind of fun to contemplate.

New York remains Dutch? Not sure how it could happen, but what are the consequences if it does?

Chicago never recovers from the great fire? What town takes over? What are the consequences?

Hurricane doesn’t devastated Galveston in the early 1900s? What are the consequences?

A hurricane devastates the oil producing regions of Texas or New Orleans (maybe both) in summer 1942 or 1943? What are the consequences to the war effort? DDay postponed a year? World War II continues into 1946?

The Ainu (northern Japan) establish regular trading contact with the Indians of the northwest coast? Let’s say this happens around 1100 AD. Not sure what the tech base was on the two sides by then, but if it was feasible what would the consequences be?

Manchu dynasty falls in the 1850s or 1860s? Who takes over? Does China remain unified? Do the Europeans try to partition it?

Mongol Japan? One of the Mongol invasions succeed.

Spanish Taiwan? Spain grabbed the Philippines. Why not Taiwan too? If (big if) they hang onto the islands until the late 1800s and there is still a Spanish American War, that could get very interesting.

Nazi Belgian Congo? Chamberlain toyed with the idea of giving the Germans colonies as part of appeasement. He didn’t have British colonies in mind though. Apparently he was thinking in terms of giving them the Belgian Congo. I’m not sure how that would have played out, but the consequences of the Nazis in power over Africans would probably be pretty horrendous given their racial ideologies.

Germany takes Holland – September 1939? Lets say the Germans decide that the time isn’t right to take on the French and British. They can’t continue their buildup without another country to loot though. They need a victim other than Poland. They choose Holland for a variety of reasons, among which: taking it unhinges Belgium’s defenses. Maybe Japan takes advantage of the attack to go after the Dutch East Indies. Would Belgium stay neutral under these circumstances? Would Britain and France? Probably.

Germany takes Denmark and Norway – September 1939? Same rationale, different target.

Early partition of the Ottoman Empire? Western Europe was probably capable of partitioning the Ottoman Empire pretty much any time after 1700. Britain propped it up for many years because they preferred a weak empire controlling the area rather than their European rivals. When would a partition be most likely to take place? Who would end up with what pieces? How would the various pieces of the Ottoman Empire react?

 

The Barbary Pirates remain a threat into the 1860s? How do you make that happen? What are the consequences?

Britain rules the seas with an iron fist? What if the British had simply said after the Napoleonic Wars “If it floats it belongs to us”. You want to ship something it goes on a British ship at British rates. No British flag? It doesn’t sail.

Germany has a more successful Bolshevik revolution ala Hungary, in the immediate aftermath of World War I.As a result it is invaded by one or more of its neighbors, again ala Hungary. That would result in pieces getting carved off of it: Poland would probably get a bigger hunk of Silesia, Danzig, and parts of southern East Prussia. France would probably set up a puppet regime in the Saar.

The Ottoman Empire fragments in the early going and thus never becomes a threat to the Byzantines.

 

 

Posted February 10, 2009.