Brainstorming Scenarios

Scenario Seeds

By: Dale R. Cozort





 

What if France Had Fought On From North Africa? Part V

Scenario Seeds

The Brazilian Gold Rush of 1930

The Siberian Connection

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Ever run across a fact or an idea and know that it has some kind of Alternate History potential but you’re not quite sure what to do with it?  Here are a few facts or ideas that I’m going to do something with, but I haven’t figured out quite what yet. 

Germans Collapse in the East Winter 1941: The Russian counter-offensive in front of Moscow in December 1941 really shook up the German high command.  There was serious talk of withdrawing all the way back to the Polish border.  Let's say the Germans try that.  In the atrocious weather, large portions of the German army does a Napoleon-style disintegration.  The Red Army suffers badly from the weather and wear and tear of the rapid advance too, but the German Army Group Center almost disappears, leaving a gaping hole through which the Soviets pour.  What happens next?  How do the Western Allies react to the prospect of the Red Army descending on Central Europe at a time when the Allies have little prospect of even getting back on the continent for at least six months?  How do the Germans react?

Kamchatka remains an island. 
Apparently parts of the Kamchatka peninsula in Northern Russia were once an island, part of the Aleution island chain.  Let's say that it remains a reasonably large island of the coast of Russia.  What, if anything, changes?

German-Polish Border War in the 1920s:
Border skirmishes between Polish and German irregulars over disputed areas in Silesia in the early 1920s escalate into a full-scale war between Poland and the rump German army.  What happens next?

Mammoths survive on isolated artic islands: 
Mammoths survived on a couple of arctic islands long after they died off everywhere else.  In one case (not Wrangel Island) rising sea levels reduced the size of the island to the point that there was no longer enough room for a viable population around 6000 years ago.  Let's say that the island was a little higher and remained large enough to support a population of mammoths.  Eskimos would probably eventually reach the island and exterminate the mammoths, but I suppose some trick of ocean currents might conceivably keep that from happening.  Let's say that European explorers find an isolated mammoth population in the late 1700s.  What impact does that have?  What happens to the mammoths?

Uninhabited New Zealand:
When European explorers reach New Zealand, instead of finding the New Zealand islands inhabited by the Polynesian Maori, they find those islands uninhabited, with a flourishing populations of Moas and giant Moa-eating eagles that are also willing and able to attack human beings.  What are the consequences if any?  What happens to the Moas?

Uninhabited Australia:
When European explorers reach Australia, they find no human beings there, and Australia still has a full, flourishing fauna of large marsupials and other large animals.  What happens next?  Who settles Australia?  What happens to the Australian animals?  A variation on this: Australia is settled for the first time by Polynesians about the same time that they colonized New Zealand.  How much if any of the Australian Megafauna survives?  How do these Australian Polynesians develop?

Uninhabited Hawaii:
Same thing for Hawaii--Europeans arrive to find it uninhabited, and with a fauna mainly consisting of ground living birds.  Consequences?

West Antartica As An Island: 
A chunk of West Antarctica somewhat larger than Madagascar breaks away from the rest of Antarctica around 30 million years ago.  It moves north enough that part of it remains inhabitable by land mammals, though it is still near Antarctica and becomes very cold.  How would the animals there develop?  Would humans still develop?  Would European explorers ever arrive?  How would any human explorers react to finding that island?  How would the animals there fare when humans did arrive?

World War II Starts In Late August:
The Germans almost started World War II about five days earlier than they actually did.  If they had attacked on August 26, the Germans would have caught the Poles with even less of their army mobilized than was historically the case.  Presumably that would have meant an even quicker German victory, which would have caught both the Western Allies and the Soviets even less prepared to do anything about the German victory.  What consequences if any would that have?  Would the Germans push into territory that the Soviets were supposed to get?  If they did, would they leave?  Would the British and French still declare war if the Germans were obviously already well on their way to victory before the Allies got around to a declaration of war?

Germans Try To Postpone Their Attack But Fail: 
On that same theme: The Germans almost weren't able to call off the attacks schedules for August 26, and a few small units actually moved into Poland and took their objectives.  What if some, but not all German division-sized units fail to get the order to halt?  The Germans launch a multi-division, but uncoordinated drive into Poland, with some units pushing ahead, some units attacking and then getting the orders and falling back, and some units not moving at all.  Consequences?  Do the Germans decide to go through with an August 26 kickoff, figuring that the war has already irretrievably started?  Do they pull back and try to make some kind of face-saving excuse?  With the Poles tipped off to a lot of the German initial moves, how do the German adjust their plans?  How do the Poles and the Western Allies react?

Poles Beat the Red Army More Decisively:   
What if Poland had won an even more decisive victory over the Red Army in the early Soviet/Polish war of the early 1920s?  A Polish-allied Ukrainian nationalist government in part of the Ukraine?  A longer Russian Civil War as White Russians get an opportunity to recover?

Bolshevik Bavaria: 
A Bolshevik regime maintains control in part of Germany (Bavaria maybe) for a period of several months or even years in the aftermath of World War I.  Consequences?  A weaker bargaining position for the German central government in negotiations with the Allies on disputed borders?  Or would the Allies be more generous because they feared the spread of Bolsheviks to other parts of Germany?  How would that affect the ongoing border disputes between Poland and Germany?




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Copyright 2004 By Dale R. Cozort


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