What Actually Happened: In late October 1935, the US Army Air Corp was holding a competition for a next generation bomber. The winner looked pretty obvious. Boeing had taken a risk, and gone with a four-engine entry, while the competition had gone with more conventional two-engine bombers. Boeing’s entry, then called the Model 299, had just flown into Wright field at an average speed higher than its rivals’ maximum speeds. It seemed to outclass the competition in every way.

Unfortunately, due to pilot oversight the Boeing prototype took off with vital controls locked on October 30, 1935, and crashed. The rules of the competition were such that Boeing was out of the running, and the winner was a two-engine Douglas entry, which became the B18.

The Army Air Corp rather reluctantly put the B18 into production, with an initial order of 133, followed by order for 177 in June 1937 and 40 in mid-1938. The B18 had a brief and uninspiring combat career at the beginning of World War II, and then was withdrawn from frontline service as B17s became available.

In spite of the crash, the Army Air Corp was impressed enough with the Boeing Model 299 that it ordered 13 ‘evaluation’ aircraft of the type, and then placed a relatively small orders (39 planes) for production aircraft—to be called the B17B. Those aircraft entered service in 1939, and another order for 39 planes was placed that year. Production of the B17 gradually ramped up over the next couple of years, but by the time of Pearl Harbor they still hadn’t completely replaced the B18.

What might have happened: A test pilot checks the controls, releases them and the test flight of the Boeing Model 299 goes smoothly. The Army Air Corp places an order for over a hundred. The resulting plane isn’t exactly the same plane as the B17 of our history. Historically Boeing made a considerable number of changes after the accident. Some, but not all of those changes are made in this time-line.

By mid-1937, the US has over a hundred of the most powerful long-range bombers in the world in service, and the Air Corp wants to buy at least two hundred more.

Consequences to October 1938: By early 1937, inter-service rivalry has entered the picture, just as it did historically. Historically the navy saw the B17 as a rival and pushed to restrict production. The Army Air Corp caused that to some extent by touting the B17’s potential against possible invasion fleets.

In this scenario, the Army doesn’t already have a rival bomber, so it doesn’t play up that aspect of the B17, but the navy does still see the potential threat to its role. There is one role the navy wouldn’t mind seeing the B17 play though. The defense of the Philippines in the event of a war against Japan has long been a problem in navy planning. The navy historically planned to battle its way across the Pacific to relieve the US garrison, but that prospect wasn’t something many navy people looked forward to.

The main problem was that it would probably take longer for the navy to fight through to the Philippines than it would for the Japanese to defeat the US garrison there. If the B17 could ward off a Japanese invasion, even for a few weeks, that would make US naval planning much easier.

A compromise is reached where the Air Corp gets to order 120 of the new planes, but they have to station at least 60 B17s in the Philippines. That compromise doesn’t last long, as we’ll see later, but defending the Philippines becomes a major part of the B17’s mission.

The Air Corp has already demonstrated the ability to fly B17s to the Philippines with stops in Hawaii, Midway, Wake, Port Moresby, and Darwin. Just getting the planes there isn’t enough though. The Air Corp has to develop the infrastructure to support the big bombers. B17s continue to visit the Philippines from time-to-time in the second half of 1937, especially as the Sino Japanese war gets hotter.

As the infrastructure in the Philippines builds up, B17s start patrolling the surrounding waters. That’s a not very subtle hint to the Japanese that the US has interests in the area and the power to protect them.

As the US builds up its heavy bomber fleet, other countries look enviously at the B17 and try to build their own heavy bombers. Airpower advocates in every major country have long seen fleets of heavy bombers as the modern equivalent of battleships—something that every great power has to have.

The growing US fleet of B17s helps convince national leaders to pour money into those planes. For example, the Italians have long used air power as a tool of national prestige, and they feel that they have to put scarce money into building an equivalent of the B17.

Hitler has not been a fan of big long-range bombers, but as B17s fly across the Atlantic to show the flag in France and England, Hitler sees the necessity to build equivalent planes for propaganda reasons if nothing else. The Germans have two prototype heavy bombers, the Dornier Do19 and the Junkers Ju89. Neither are anywhere close to being in the B17s class, mainly because of inadequate engines, but the Germans produce a few dozen Junkers Ju89s and let them be shown around enough to give the impression that Germany has a fleet of planes equivalent to or better than the B17. They also push hard to bring the German heavy bomber fleet up to US standards. That does mean that Germany has slightly fewer resources to build fighters and two-engine bombers though.

The small German heavy bomber fleet has an enormous impact on the US. Nazi propaganda touts the Ju89 as a plane that can fly non-stop to the US and deliver a heavy bomb load. That turns out to be a bad move, because it jolts the US into trying to build defenses against that non-existent threat.

The majority of US Congressmen are against getting entangled in European wars, but they react very strongly against something that might actually threaten the US. The budget for US fighter production in 1937 and 1938 jumps dramatically, and Congress authorizes building large numbers of anti-aircraft batteries around east coast cities. Those steps will take some time to implement though, because current aircraft manufacturing capacity can’t support that kind of expansion.

The German heavy bomber fleet tips the political battle over the number of B17s to be built toward more production. It also makes the US somewhat more receptive to selling planes to Germany’s potential enemies in Europe to the extent that production capacity allows it.

France is looking for US warplanes to bolster its air force for the looming war against Germany. Historically the French bought hundreds of US fighters, bombers, and aircraft engines. They had thousands more on order when France fell. In this scenario, the French want B17s very badly. The US is very reluctant to sell them any. The most advanced US warplanes are for the US only.

At the same time, French orders may allow the US aircraft industry to expand more quickly, and the Roosevelt Administration is concerned about the potential impact of German airbases on the French coast and in French North Africa if France were to lose a new war with Germany.

After an extended period of horse-trading, the parties reach a compromise. The French are allowed to order around 80 of a special export model B17, with some of the high-tech features stripped off. They are also allowed to order several hundred fighters, trainers, and lighter bombers if they are willing to invest in expanding US aircraft manufacturing capacity.

The exaggerated threat of the German heavy bomber fleet also makes the US much more concerned about the Spanish Civil War. The potential for German airbases in Spain or the Canary Islands is a major concern. The US has been concerned about Communist influence on the Republican side of the Spanish Civil War, and has worked hard to keep US arms from flowing to the Spanish Republic. The Roosevelt administration quietly starts looking the other way as the Republic tries to buy arms in the US.

The Japanese, French, and British also put more effort into building B17-equivalents, though the Japanese effort is hampered by the needs of the war effort in China. Though the French have access to B17s, national pride requires that they be able to build their own equivalent. Heavy bomber fleets have in the eyes of political leaders become part of being a great power, just like battleships.

The US with a fleet of B17s is considered much more of a power to be respected than one with a fleet of B18s. Isolation is still strong, but enough influential people in and out of government believe in the ‘threat’ of Germany’s heavy bomber fleet that Roosevelt is in a position to take a much larger role on the world stage. While the Germans are considered the major threat, US opinion is far more open to forceful diplomacy and even the potential of military action against Japan.

The European Allies made a terrible mistake in the aftermath of World War I in not giving the US more influence in the peace treaties, and in repudiating wartime debts. Many knowledgeable people in the US felt that the European Allies had used the United States to win the war and then treated it like a country bumpkin when it was no longer needed. There was another side to that story, but shabby treatment by its Allies after the war left the US very reluctant to intervene militarily or diplomatically in Europe.

At the same time, Germany’s heavy bomber fleet made isolationism much harder to sustain, and it made isolationism without a major defense buildup even more difficult to support. The US quietly moves to coordinate its actions with France and England, and works to figure out exactly what German capabilities actually are. It also pushes work on even longer range bombers, working to create the capability of striking Germany directly from the United States if necessary.

US B17s make highly publicized direct flights to French and British bases, and engage in joint training maneuvers. The US expands aircraft production capacity and becomes much more forceful in European diplomacy.

Meanwhile, as the China incident heats up, B17s from bases in the Philippines keep track of Japanese fleet movements, and sometimes quietly pass information on those movements along to the Chinese Nationalists. The Roosevelt administration also makes a substantial loan to China for arms purchases. US .50 caliber machine guns and other small arms begin showing up in Chinese hands, as do semi-obsolete US fighter and bomber planes.

The US doesn’t want war with Japan given the supposed German threat, and the Roosevelt administration is a bit torn as to how to deal with the war between Japan and China. It would like to cool down tensions with Japan so that the US military can concentrate on the German threat, but it needs the Nationalist Chinese as a counterbalance to the Japanese.

The US quietly signals the Japanese that the US will do whatever it takes in the way of military aid to the Chinese Nationalists in order to prevent complete Japanese victory. It also strongly urges the Japanese to come to some sort of compromise peace.

As the US moves closer to the European Allies, and as the US B17 fleet begins to play a role in European and Asian diplomacy, Hitler pushes for a real German long-range heavy bomber capability. New, more powerful engines and some detail improvements turn the JU-89 into something approaching a credible heavier bomber, and the Germans ramp up production in early 1938. Every JU-89 built means that Germany doesn’t have the resources to build a couple of lighter bombers though, so the heavy bomber capability comes at a cost to Germany’s ground support capability.

The course of European events remains pretty much on their historic course until late 1938. At that point, tensions between Germany and Czechoslovakia heat up. By then the French have several dozen B17s. What they really need are fighters though.

Much if not all of the French fighter force is obsolete, and newer fighters are just beginning to come off of assembly lines. That weighs heavily on French war planners; especially given the fact that the French still believe the Germans have a large fleet of B17-equivalents.

The French B17s and the fact that the US has several hundred more B17s that might be used to shore up that fleet has to weigh heavily on German planners. The Germans have to put more effort into defending cities and industrial sites. That means fewer fighters and fewer anti-aircraft guns available for offensive actions. German generals know that Germany is not ready for even a war with France, much less with France and Britain backed by the industrial power of the United States.

So, where does this go from here? Do the Allies stand up against Hitler over Czechoslovakia? Given the far less favorable balance of power, does Germany even try to move against the Czechs in late 1938? If they don’t, where does the world go from there? What happens in China? Chances are that the Japanese would avoid gratuitous actions like the Panay incident, but tensions are bound to increase as US planes and guns combine with Chinese manpower to make any Japanese conquest of China much more difficult.

With increased tensions between the US and Japan would the Japanese still act aggressively on the Manchurian/Siberian border and provoke the Nomanham battles with the Soviet Union? It doesn’t seem logical that they would, but then provoking the Soviet Union with the bulk of their army tied down in China wasn’t very rational either.

Would the Japanese and Chinese Nationalists come up with some kind of compromise peace? The combination of US weapons and Chinese manpower would be very difficult for them to overcome, and at least some of the leadership was smart enough to figure that out.

So far, we have the absence of an almost forgotten accident leading to a heavy bomber race. We have that bomber race forcing the US to play a more and more active role in the world. Does it then lead to an earlier start to World War II? Does it lead to a coup of German generals against Hitler in order to keep him from leading Germany into a war it can’t win? Does it prevent World War II entirely, or at least delay it for a few years? I’ll probably do at least one more section of this scenario exploring what might have happened if that first B17 prototype hadn’t crashed.